Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object, has been identified as having a potential impact risk with Earth in 2032. Initially estimated to have a 1% chance of collision, the probability has fluctuated due to new data, with the latest estimate being 1.5%. While the asteroid is categorized as a 'city killer,' experts emphasize that the probability of impact remains low, and ongoing observations aim to refine its trajectory and reduce the risk further.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has garnered significant attention due to its potential to collide with Earth in December 2032. Initially discovered in late 2024, this near-Earth object has seen its impact probability fluctuate based on new observational data. While the current impact probability is estimated at 1.5%, experts are closely monitoring the asteroid to refine its trajectory and mitigate any potential threat.
Since its discovery, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been under close observation due to its potential impact risk with Earth in 2032. Initial estimates placed the probability of collision at 1%, which subsequently increased to 3.1% before being revised down to 1.5% after further analysis. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and the European Space Agency have been actively involved in tracking the asteroid's trajectory. Despite the fluctuating probabilities, experts emphasize that the likelihood of an impact remains low, with a 97% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth [1] [2].
The discovery of 2024 YR4 was made by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. Since then, multiple observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope, have been tasked with monitoring the asteroid. The Webb telescope, in particular, will provide infrared observations to accurately determine the asteroid's size and refine its orbit. This ongoing monitoring is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in its trajectory and potentially lowering the impact probability to zero. Observations will continue until the asteroid fades from view in April 2025, but it is expected to return to visibility in 2028 [3] [4].
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is categorized as a 'city killer' due to its size, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. If it were to impact Earth, it could cause significant regional damage. However, experts stress that the probability of such an event is low. NASA and other space agencies are exploring potential mitigation strategies, including deflection techniques, to address any potential threats. The asteroid's impact risk is currently rated as a Level 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a need for continued monitoring and research [5].
While asteroid 2024 YR4 presents a potential impact risk, the probability remains low, and experts are actively monitoring the situation. Ongoing observations and data collection are crucial to refining the asteroid's trajectory and reducing the risk further. With the involvement of advanced telescopes and international space agencies, efforts are underway to ensure any potential threat is addressed well in advance of the predicted impact date.
""What will happen is, with our gaining knowledge, uncertainty will shrink further and further and further."" - Richard Moissl
""People should not really be too concerned about that."" - Davide Farnocchia